Archive for June, 2010
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How much TV are we really watching?
If you are a male over 65 with a high school education, then the answer is… that you’re not reading this article because you are watching TV right now.
Looking round the US right now is a bit like Alice in Wonderland (but not the big-earning version by Tim Burton which looks to beat the one billion mark in takings worldwide). There’s a lot of unreality around and it all goes back to one of these pesky idioms, “Trying to get blood from a stone”. Let’s take it step by step. In the world of boxing, you introduce the fighters according to their corners. So, in the blue corner, you have the lefty socialist liberals and they all want to keep the entitlement spending without increasing taxes. While in the red corner, you have all those Tea Party members who want to do away with government and all its spending on little things like defense and the infrastructure that delivers electricity, drinking water and so on. Oh, and they don’t want to raise taxes either. In fact, abolishing big government means no IRS. So, whoever you ask, they all agree it’s impossible to raise taxes (”starve the beast” as the GOP puts it) but, without more money coming from somewhere, it will be impossible to balance the budget. Does balancing the budget matter? Well, ask Greece whether they should balance their budget. Once the riots die down, you may have an answer. In the meantime, the world’s lenders think Greece will default on its debts. In ten years time, without action from the US government (big or small), the same fear may affect the US power to borrow.
So, right now, states cannot raise taxes and face paying out on entitlements. The majority are licensing more gambling. The levy is not counted as a tax and is politically acceptable. Except, there’s too much gambling already. No matter how many casinos or other sites you licence, there’s still the same number of gamblers. Hence, the reference to “blood from stone”. It’s going to be very difficult for states to get any real increase in revenue, particularly when you add in the effect of online gambling. With rising gas prices and family budgets still under pressure because of the recession, it’s cheaper and more convenient to stay home to gamble.
So, let’s pick a few states and see what plans are in the pipeline. Go to Boston and you find yourself in a war zone with New Hampshire, Connecticut and Rhode Island all pushing their own gambling agendas. Wherever you look, there are plans for new resort-casinos and thousands of slot machines at race tracks and dedicated slots parlors. With all these states in competition to attract the same hard-core gamblers, they all risk ending up with little improvement to their revenue streams. More interestingly, you have to doubt the commercial judgement of the corporations still prepared to consider building new casinos. Just as the states have looming deficits to fill, many of the existing casinos have fallen on hard times as online slots have grown more popular. Indeed, if the GOP and its Tea Party element are against big government, they should oppose the use of gambling to prop up state finances. Surely, the libertarian stays home to play slots, keeps all the winnings and pays no taxes, direct or indirect.
Perhaps the biggest product war on the modern consumer’s mind is the ongoing battle between Mac and PC. From developers’ conferences to television commercials, Microsoft and Apple are actively engaged in a constant tug of war for customer loyalty. Though most of us are familiar with this heavily popularized competition (the more silly aspects of which are making their way to YouTube memes), substantially fewer of us are likely to remember a time when a very different sort of format war was being waged: The war between VHS and Betamax. The period of time between the late 1970s and early 1980s saw intense competition between these two home video formats, with VHS eventually emerging as the winner.
One of the more exciting features of the latest recession has been the collapse of tax revenue flowing into the coffers of the individual US states. Sales are down so there’s less tax take there. Property values have crashed through the floor so, where tax is a percentage of valuation, the tax take has fallen – with so many properties foreclosed and families unemployed, payment of the tax has been difficult to enforce. People have been earning less and businesses have made less profit so, again, less income tax. Put everything together and many states are effectively bankrupt, their bonds reduced to junk status by the credit rating agencies. Yet there is no political will to really grasp the nettle of tax increases. If the electorate want the same level of services from the state, they have to pay for them. If they genuinely will not pay, they must be prepared to accept real cuts in the quality of the services. Perhaps this recession will finally break through the stubborn refusal to pay a larger percentage of income as tax. While we wait for this revolution, individual states are playing around the margins to save a few dollars here, and raise a few dollars there. Their theory is that federal government will not allow them to fail. Like AIG, many of the states are “too big”. So bail-out money will save them from having to make the hard decisions.
This has not prevented some states from getting creative. In New Hampshire, Governor John Lynch has a new policy. To help bridge the gap between solvency and insolvency, he’s proposing to legalize online gambling. The detail of the plan is to be announced soon, but it’s already controversial. Ignoring the problems created by the federal law clamp-down on the transfer of funds for gambling purposes, the Governor has been caught in a classic flip-flop. Not so long ago, the lawmakers who represent the real-world casino interests proposed a bill to licence some 17,000 slots and table games. The recession was not yet in its full glory and the hole in the budget was not today’s gaping chasm. The Governor decided to veto the bill.
He gave two reasons. The first a simple calculation that there were already a significant number of machines in the state and licensing more was unlikely to produce a real increase in revenue. It would only share out the same money among more machines. But it’s the second reason that has landed him in trouble. He said the bill would lead to an increase in gambling. Whether he was concerned at the rising level of addiction, the risk of more young people being tempted into gambling or he had some moral objections is not clear. The bill died. The new proposal to legalize online gambling is likely to make gambling more accessible. If people have to travel to specific locations, their behavior can be more closely monitored and controlled. The age of players can be verified. Operators can stop someone when they have obviously lost too much. Allowing gambling from PCs, lap and palm top machines, and Blackberrys is opening the flood gates. Playing online slots, people can burn through a lot of money very quickly without anyone to stop them. The Governor can’t have it both ways. If proliferating gambling is a bad thing, legalizing online gambling is a bad thing. While he decides how to answer, we can all have fun playing slots wherever we find them.
In many ways, the US has the best and the worst system of federal and state governments in the world. Arguably it has the qualities of being the best because, even though it’s a two-horse race, there’s enough of a difference between the political intentions of the successful candidates to make life interesting. But it’s one of the worst because of the level of corruption in the lawmaking following elections. Money speaks loud behind the scenes with different lobbying groups pressuring the elected representatives to deliver on the promises they made to get the campaign funds. For these purposes, it makes no difference which party you look at. All the individuals at every level in the political system depend on “donations” to get elected. When it comes to the world of gambling, the politics get particularly complicated. For individual states, the revenue derived from the different forms of licensed gambling helps avoid complete financial meltdown. Yes, there’s a recession, but this has only slowed the flow of money into gambling. Unlike other sources of tax revenue, the gamblers of America are helping balance budgets. But there are different interested parties. In one corner stand the real world casino operators who want the least possible regulation on their activities. Their group is not united because the casinos on Indian land have advantages and, some say, represent unfair competition. We should not forget the other sites who can get licences to run slots. In another corner stand the racing interests. They are long-standing political players and also want the maximum freedom to run their own betting operations with the least interference from states. This blurs into another group that runs betting operations on other sporting events. While a more distant group runs online casinos.
As an example of the conflict of interests, let’s go to Massachusetts where there’s a new bill in the state House to establish two new real world casinos. As always, the declared intention is to generate more revenue for the state. To maintain a monopoly for the land-based casino operations, the bill proposes to criminalize all online gambling. It will be an offense for any resident of Massachusetts to place or accept a wager placed by a telecommunication device, no matter where they may be located. You will realize, of course, this includes all telephone betting and would hit the racing and sports betting operations. Not surprisingly, this has stirred up an intense lobbying exercise.
Real world operations are preferred because they are easier to police and monitor when it comes to collecting the tax or levy. Once operations disappear down telephone lines or into the internet, they can be based anywhere. This seriously complicates the collection of any tax. States like to keep their worlds simple. They want the maximum revenue from licensed gambling with the lowest possible cost for collection. Just crossing state lines makes collection more difficult. If casino games are offered from outside US territory, tax cannot be collected. That’s one of the reasons why the federal government clamped down on the use of credit cards and other easy payment methods. It forced more operations onshore where they could be taxed. Whether you agree with this approach to balancing the budgets is irrelevant. Casino games are seen as the easy way to raise money without upsetting the electorate. Imagine a world without gambling and hear the roar of anger if states announced an increase in sales tax.